From time to time, I do a comprehensive analysis of the results of the strategy known as “The Surge.” This is often inspired by attacks from the anti-war crowd and this time is no different. In the regional newspaper, I have ran smack into several ardent partisans that resort to dubious attacks with little substance.
More recently, an anti-Semite conspiracy theorist has arrived on the scene claiming that it’s all a “Zionist” plot by “Jewish Supremacists” to attack all of
Israel Iran
My first report was back in the summer of 2007 on another page. It was the height of the violence and my focus was on whether the Surge was purely of enemy action “against more targets” or if it was more aggressive action on the part of our Troops that would result in decreased violence in a sustained future.
Let’s look at the Surge and whether or not it’s working. My primary source of information is: Index,http://www.brookings.edu/saban/iraq-index.aspx
May 29, 2008 Iraq
Violence against Iraqi Civilians is down sharply over last year. Approximately 700 civilians have been killed by ALL forms of violence in each month since October 2007. In the period one year prior (2006-07) it was 3,000-3,500+ a month. That is half of what it was in the same period two years ago (2005-06) of 1,400-2,600 a month and the same period in 2004-05. It is near the same levels of violence against Civilians that we saw in the period of September 03 through February 2004 when Al-Qaeda began arriving in force and pushed the numbers up to 2000/month.
To put things in perspective, Saddam’s Regime killed 300,000 of his own civilians (not including the soldiers killed in his wars.) That’s approximately 1,000 civilians killed in an average month BY SADDAM’s GOVERNMENT. That we have helped Iraqis to secure their democracy in such a way that terrorism and crime kill 25% fewer of their people than their previous government says a lot in its own right, but the work is not finished.
In his regular briefing, Improved Iraqi Forces Contribute to Four-Year Violence Low Major General Kevin Bergner explained that the Iraqis are largely the reason for the current security of
Iraq
In May of this year, there were 465,662 members of the Iraqi Security Forces, along with the 90,000 or so Iraqi Civilian volunteers. Without including the Sons of Iraq program, that is 134.44% of last year, 175.32% of May 2006, 276.8% of May 2005, 343.13% more than May 2004 and 58207% more than May of 2003.
But the numbers of Uniformed Iraqis alone is not the reason. In the early days, Political Pressure in the
United States Iraq Iraq
Those that weren’t insurgents themselves were untrained or just plain lazy. This is no longer the case. The Iraqi Military and Law Enforcement leadership has gained the training and experience it needs to lead the basic trainees it is receiving.
In late March, we held our breath as Sadr ended his yearlong truce and ordered his forces to attack in
Basra Baghdad US Basra
In other words it was the decision of a few officers in one unit to disobey orders and al-Maliki dealt with him. The Police Officers simply slunk away choosing to fight another day. Since that time they have responded by bringing peace to
Basra Sadr City Baghdad
And they have paid a price for their freedom, though less now than they have in the past. 8,301 Uniformed Iraqis have paid the ultimate price for freedom since June 2003, that’s more than twice as many as we American allies. But since September the number killed per month has been 69 to 114 in all but March when they lost 161, well below the average prior to that of 146 Iraqi KIA’s prior to that.
With 400 enemy initiated attacks during week ending
9 May 2008
While May 2007 was one of the deadliest months in
Iraq
But Americans are more concerned with the violence against our own. The 22
US Iraq
EFP attacks are down 60% over the high last year and down 30% over the averages of last year. This is likely to be a result of the offensives against Iranian backed “Special Groups” and Mehdi Militia by Iraqi Security Forces.
Only One Foreigner has been kidnapped in the last year and he was rescued by Iraqi Security Forces during their offensive in
Basra Iraq
The Iraq Index also notes several key pieces of legislation enacted by the Iraqi Politicians as well.
But you can be sure we would be inundated with hours of TV time devoted to the death of any more American journalists. Two have been killed in 5 years there and still it is ranked as one of the most
And all of this comes at a time when Coalition Troop Strength has been reduced from 182,668 in October 2007 to 159,907 in May 2008. 21,000 US Troops fewer over that time period. The Brits account for the rest of the Troop Reductions and we saw what happened in
Basra
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