Some issues just refuse to go away. Some threats demand to be recognized. Some things can not be simply explained and set aside. Pakistan is a complex issue with complex challenges within it. It was not long ago that Benazir Bhutto was assassinated by Al-Qaeda terrorists creating a new complex chapter in the internals of Pakistan politics and possibly providing the death noll to the Pervez political life.
Sadly, if there is one consistency in US policy, it is getting it wrong on Pakistan. The current administration not only seems bent on continuing to get it wrong, but perfecting the means of getting it wrong, going back to September 2007, on the campaign trail, when it called for attacking an ally, and with help from its Senatorial allies in exposing classified operations.
It seems that the US Body Politic is intent on doing the exact wrong things in Pakistan. It interferes when it should set back. It shouts when it should whisper. It's mute when it should speak out. It assails the democratic leaders when it should support our allies against their enemies. It pushes when it should pull.
The single most important and successful moment was when Bush explained blankly that Nations could stand with us or be considered against us in the fight against Islamist Terrorists. Musharraf got the message and allowed overflights in the War in Afghanistan. The threat was veiled just thinly enough that Pervez was able to maintain sovereignity while understanding, it was a promise to do what we had to do. He was not forced to specifically bow publically, while the US confronted not only our enemy, but his enemy, his thorn.
Pakistan is complex, overstretched, and only a little stable. It faces regional powers and superpowers, while providing its troops to UN Missions. But it cannot control its own territory and does not maintain a coherent strategy to do so or for dealing with its enemies within its borders. At times, it appeases them and at other times it asserts its sovereignity.
The problem is that the politicians of Pakistan recognize the expediency in playing strong against
"The current political turmoil will certainly distract the government from dealing with the multiple challenges facing Pakistan, including spreading Talibanization in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Even before the political crisis, the government (and the military) had failed to deal decisively with Taliban forces gaining ground across the semi-autonomous tribal belt bordering Afghanistan and in parts of the settled areas of the NWFP." Lisa Curtis, The Heritage Foundation, 3/13/2009
So, when The Heritage Foundation asks will Al Qaeda exploit the situation, I can affirmatively say "Yes, they will, and they have for years." Al-Qaeda is astute enough to realize that Obama has put Pakistan Politicians between a rock and a hard place. If Pakistan openly allows US Military Action in their borders, AQ will propagandize that the weakness of the leaders. If Pakistan confronts AQ and the Taliban, AQ will propagandize that Zardari is a stooge of Obama. If Pakistan withdraws (as it has) from the terrorist infested lands, they will exert their control, set up their de facto government and preach hate for all things free.
And when Obama sends bombs into Pakistan, it won't matter if they precisely enter OBL's ear while providing a meal to his terrorist kids, Al-Qaeda will claim that "innocent civilians" were killed by Americans and it was allowed by the Pakistani regime. They will call for retaliation, and recruit more for their anti-democracy causes. Zardari will be prudent politically if he complains even if he's privately overjoyed and gratitutious quietly diplomatically.
If the Obama wants to make inroads in Pakistan, it needs to fire Holbrooke. He's done nothing but make things worse. The next thing he needs to do is hire an Obama opponent for the position. Someone that can legitimately claim to oppose Obama's previous policies and positions on the region. That new person will need to demonstrate cultural understanding as well as a bit of open hostility towards the hubris of Obama and Holbrooke. Hillary, I have some names for you, if you're interested. Actually, Sarah Palin would be an obvious choice. It seems she made quite the impression and is clearly an opponent of the administration. But for lesser known names that can do as well, well call me. That is, if you want to succeed in that part of the world.
Until then, Pakistani Politicians are more likely to take the popular road of confrontation with India in Kashmir than the unpopular road of confrontation with the Taliban in the lawless zone as dictated to them by arrogant superpowers. And as long as the UN is paying a premium for 3rd World Troops to laze around in "peace keeping missions," Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and others will continue to cash the check.
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