Sometimes, words can express reality and sometimes you need a graphic, a map to show what and where you mean. In this map, the most deadly areas of Afghanistan are darkest reds:
Kandahar has long been a hot bed of Taliban activity and is not only a province but a major Afghan city with one of its international airports. It also happens to be one of the major bases of Coalition forces. When Al-Qaeda realized they had awoken the sleeping tiger, it was Kandahar that they expected to be their last stronghold.
The relative inactivity in Nimroz, sandwiched as it is between Helmand, Farah, Pakistan, and Iran is not readily apparent, but likely to change at some undefined point in the future. I won't expound on my thoughts of what may cause this island of apparent safety.
But before we get to deep into the provinces, we may want to zoom out to see the external influences on these areas:
Given the Iran factor, one might expect that Herat and Farah provinces would be more deadly, but Iran has been rather influential in those provinces and toeing the line of limited engagement to the degree that it can avoid direct US response and semi-plausible deniability. In short, Iran would prefer to push the violence away from its political influenced areas.
That is not to say the Iranian Government is inactive in terrorist activities in Afghanistan. They have helped to finance, supply, and train islamist terrorists to include Al-Qaeda. But their efforts have been through proxies. And the Iranian Islamist Government prefers a different group, even if it will settle for the Taliban.
Kunar, Paktia, & Paktika may not pop out in their surrounding bed of red in the upper map, but these are areas of particular activity because they are opposite Taliban strongholds across the Pakistan border. These areas also see greater activity currently due to the Pakistan offensive against the Taliban.
Kunar has the added distinction of being on the primary road out of Pakistan into Afghanistan and directly into Kabul. It should be noted that most of the main highways in Afghanistan have greater activity than the unimproved riverbed roads that make the border so difficult to "seal."
Paktya & Paktyka (both spellings are correct of these two provinces) have been areas of contention since the beginning.
Konduz, also spelled Kunduz, was a rare stronghold in the North for the Taliban during the invasion. It has seen recent violence after largely peaceful years. This is a German sector.
The areas that border Pakistan continue to be the areas of greatest activity, because of the terrain, because of the long years of "independence" from the national Government of Pakistan, because of their relative impassability. Often the role of Pashtun Taliban in the violence is misconstrued as a Pashtun or Pakistani support of the Taliban, but that is simply not a rule. Most Taliban are Pashtun and many are Pakistani, but the reverse does not hold true.
The Pashtunwali, or Honor Code, means that even if an enemy requests safe harbor and shelter, it must be given. When politicians talk of Taliban that can be swayed away from violence, they should be saying Pashtuns that are acting on behalf of the Taliban for money or tribal loyalty, rather than ideology. Taliban themselves have no honor and oppress the Pashtuns, abusing the Pashtunwali for dishonorable purposes.
Until the cultural ignorant and politicly correct can figure out the difference between a Pashtun and Taliban, they should quit confusing others by stating there exists a "moderate Taliban" when they mean a Pashtun that isn't Talib, but works with them.
And the Narco-Terrorists of Helmand? Often cited is that Afghanistan is the origin of 90% of the worlds heroin. It should also be noted that 90% of that heroin ends up in Europe. That fact should spurn Our European Allies to act more decisively in the hotbed of Taliban Terrorist Trade of poppy.
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