U.N.-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan says he is "encouraged" by reports that a shaky cease-fire between government troops and rebels in Syria seems to be holding, despite scattered violence.
Israel National News is reporting that Israel's Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will seek direct talks with Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas when he meets PA prime minister Salam Fayyad next week.
The outcome of talks set to begin Saturday between world powers and Iran over its disputed nuclear program could be a determining factor in whether Israel carries out threatened airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.
The United Nations Security Council has demanded that South Sudan pull its troops out of a Sudanese oil town that it captured on Wednesday. The two countries came closer to all-out conflict Thursday as South Sudan looked ready to defy the Security Council’s order and Sudan threatened retaliation.
Details after the break.
U.N.-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan says he is "encouraged" by reports that a shaky cease-fire between government troops and rebels in Syria seems to be holding, despite scattered violence.
In a briefing on Syria to the U.N. Security Council Thursday, Annan urged the Syrian government to take further steps by removing troops and heavy weapons from major population centers.
The cease-fire is being watched closely by skeptical Western envoys and Syrian opposition groups who are weighing President Bashar al-Assad's good faith in observing the peace plan brokered by Annan.
U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon said the international community must be united if it is going to keep Syria from descending into "chaos." At a news conference in Geneva, he said he hopes to send observers to the country soon.
"This cease-fire process is very fragile," said Ban. "It may be broken at any time if and when there is another gunshot, even a small gunshot may give both sides some protection to engage in another fighting. This is very worrisome. Therefore it is important for all the friends of all the players of the international community to influence them, to advise them sincerely to keep their promises."
Ban said the onus is on the Syrian government for the cease-fire to hold but he also urged the opposition to “sustain the cessation of violence in all its forms.”
Activists reported a few deaths Thursday and dozens of arrests, but the nascent truce appeared to largely be holding.
Syrian state media say "armed terrorists" bombed a military bus in the city of Aleppo, killing one soldier and wounding 24 officers and cadets.
Rights activists said Syrian forces killed at least three civilians. They say the violence took place in areas including the protest hubs of Homs and Hama.
Opposition groups also said Syrian troops remain deployed in flashpoint cities and are on high alert.
Opposition leaders called for demonstrations to test the resolve of the government to abide by the cease-fire.
Syrian opposition activists say while they support his efforts, they do not believe the plan will ultimately succeed.
“We wanted to give them a little time despite the fact that so many people are dying on the ground and in the streets that it is necessary to give the international community some time to find out if diplomacy is not going to work,” said activist Ammar Abdulhamid in Washington.
Ban said the U.N. is working to send a small monitoring mission from its peacekeeping department to Syria. He said it could deploy quickly once it is approved by the Security Council.
Security Council member Russia, which has blocked some previous action on Syria in the past months, looked ready to approve an observer force.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a Group of 8 meeting in Washington on Wednesday that it is “vitally important” the observers are present in Syria. He said he would ask the secretary-general to speed up his decision on the format and size of the force so the Security Council could approve its mandate.
Timor Goksel, a former spokesman for U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon, said Russia is pushing the Syrian government to halt attacks on the opposition.
"I'm optimistic because clearly Syria is under pressure from Russia," he said. "No doubt about it. How far, of course I don't know, but they're under pressure and they're responding to it by agreeing to the cease-fire and everything else.”
Syria's interior ministry urged refugees and those who were displaced during months of fighting to return, claiming it would help pay for damage to their homes. The ministry also urged citizens to lay down their arms, promising an amnesty to all “except those with blood on their hands.”
VOA's Pamela Dockins and Jeff Swicord along with wire services contributed to this report.
Israel
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will seek direct talks with Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas when he meets PA prime minister Salam Fayyad next week.
Netanyahu will hold a rare face-to-face meeting with Fayyad and two other senior officials from Ramallah in Jerusalem on April 17.
It will be the first top-level meeting between leaders in Jerusalem and Ramallah since talks hit a dead end over two years ago.
According to his office, Netanyahu will propose "raising the level of talks" and holding face-to-face negotiations with Abbas.
"At his meeting next week with the Palestinian delegation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will propose raising the level of the talks to conduct them directly with Abu Mazen," it said, using Abbas's nom-de-guerre.
"This message will also be passed on through his personal envoy, the lawyer Yitzhak Molcho, who is expected to meet with Abu Mazen and hand him a letter with Israel's position on a future agreement with the Palestinians," the PMO said.
Fayyad is expected to use the rare meeting to personally deliver a letter from Abbas in which he lays out his conditions for returning to direct negotiations.
In the letter, Abbas is expected to say the PA will only return to negotiations if Israel agrees to accept the indefensible pre-1967 lines as a PA state's future borders and halt construction in the 'disputed territories.'
Fayyad will be accompanied by negotiator Saeb Erekat and Yasser Abed Rabbo, secretary general of the Palestine Liberation Organisation.
Israeli officials have long accused their PA counterparts of using preconditions as a fait accompli to forestall talks that would require them to make hard choices and comrpomises to achieve peace.
They also note that a previous construction freeze in Judea and Samaria by Israel aimed at meeting PA demands was rebuffed and met with additional preconditions - and Abbas' failed unilateral statehood bid at the United Nations Security Council last September.
Netanyahu is also preparing his own letter for Abbas, which will be handed to the PA chairman by Molcho when the two next meet, although a date for that meeting has not yet been announced.
In the letter, Netanyahu will clarify Israel's position on reaching an agreement, which will likely include a call for a resumption of direct negotiations without preconditions.
Last week, Erekat and Molcho met to discuss Abbas's letter in what was the first time the two sides had met since January when they held five rounds of exploratory talks in a bid to seek ways of reviving direct negotiations.
But the meetings, which were sponsored by the Quartet – the European Union, Russia, the United Nations and the United States – ended without any agreement to continue talking.
The last time Abbas and Netanyahu met was at the end of September 2010, just weeks after the peace process was relaunched to great fanfare at a ceremony at the White House.
The PA chairman has threatened to turn to the United Nations General Assembly if Netanyahu does not acquiesce to the demands contained in the letter Fayyad will deliver next week.
Critics say Netanyahu's government has failed to adapt to a new paradigm in which PLO officials pursue a unilateral track while forestalling bilateral talks with unacceptable preconditions.
In December 2011, PLO officials announced "a strategy based on continuous efforts along with the international community to secure full recognition and full United Nations membership, pursuing internal reconciliation, and keeping up the popular resistance."
Iran
The outcome of talks set to begin Saturday between world powers and Iran over its disputed nuclear program could be a determining factor in whether Israel carries out threatened airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.
With Western patience running thin, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warns that time for diplomacy is not “infinite” and that “all options remain on the table.” Israel says it will not stand by as fears grow that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability - an allegation Iran denies.
China said recently that an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities would set in motion a military backlash with far-ranging consequences. Analysts interviewed by VOA say an attack on Iran is likely to provoke a retaliatory missile barrage on Israel by Iran and its allies.
They say Iran-sponsored terror could erupt against Jewish targets worldwide, U.S. interests, and American allies such as Saudi Arabia, which could be perceived by Iran as supportive of an Israeli strike.
Current and former U.S. and Israeli officials and Iran experts say it is far less likely that Iran would carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a route for 35 percent of the world’s seaborne oil. They say Iran also is unlikely to use its antiquated air or ground forces in direct operations against Israel, the U.S. or Gulf Arab nations.
The scenarios described are supported by a VOA analysis of Iran’s military arsenal. It shows major weaknesses in conventional firepower, but a flourishing ballistic missile program with the largest deployment in the Middle East.
Israeli attack looms
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told The Washington Post in February that he believed there was a strong likelihood Israel would attack Iran sometime before June - and prior to Tehran entering what Israeli leaders have called a “zone of immunity,” a point beyond which it would no longer be possible to halt Iran’s nuclear advancement towards weapon-making.
On Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would not surrender its nuclear rights "even under the most difficult pressure."
The Iranian government has warned it would retaliate in the event of a strike on its nuclear facilities. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech last month that Tehran “will attack on the same level as the enemies attack us.”
But while lethal, Iran’s ability to hit Israeli military targets remains limited.
Mark Fitzpatrick of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said none of the operational ballistic missiles in Iran’s arsenal capable of reaching Israel - the liquid propellant Shahab 3 and its longest-range variant, the Ghadr 1 - are accurate and would primarily be used “to sow terror.”
“Iran might feel it has to launch a missile or two,” Fitzpatrick said, “but they are not going to do much damage and would provoke further retaliation from Israel.”
Uzi Rubin, the former director of Israel’s missile defense organization, said Iran's medium-range missiles could do significant damage.
Rubin warns that Iran's 750 kg warheads could “inflict serious casualties if not intercepted and slow Israel’s economy simply by closing down air and sea ports.” He calculated Iran is capable of manufacturing up to 50 Shahab 3s per year and is likely to have about 400 in its current arsenal.
Iran to call on allies
Analysts say it is far more likely, though, that Iran may ask its allies in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories to inflict revenge on Israel.
“Iran is more likely to hit back using proxy forces, sleeper cells and sympathizers who are closer,” Fitzpatrick said.
Rubin says Syria is “the real gravitational center of the missile and rocket threat against Israel because of the proximity of our territories.” He said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran, may view an attack on Israel as “an escape from his battle against anti-government rebels and a way to win over Islamist elements within the country’s [Sunni Muslim] opposition.”
Still, analysts say regional and internal pressures complicate the willingness of Iran's allies to participate.
Retired Brig. Gen. Shlomo Brom, former head of strategic planning for the Israeli military's general staff, said the year-plus opposition uprising in Syria has tied Assad’s hands.
With mounting international pressure on the Syrian government to end its internal crackdown, Brom said it is “highly improbable” that Syria would join Iran in retaliatory strikes on Israel.
To Israel's southwest, in the Gaza Strip, the Hamas movement has for years been seen as an Iranian proxy. Palestinian militants regularly fire rockets into southern Israel while Israeli forces respond with air strikes against Gaza.
But Hamas has recently begun to distance itself from the Shi’ite-run governments of Iran and Syria, making its participation in an Iranian-led conflict less likely.
Hezbollah may help
That leaves Hezbollah, considered one of Iran’s most capable surrogates, armed with an estimated 40,000 rockets and the capacity to launch about 1,000 strikes per day - though with more limited capabilities than Iran.
The Lebanon-based militia has Iranian-made Fatah 110s, a powerful, guided missile “that can concentrate firepower on military targets and major infrastructure,” Rubin said.
Hezbollah also has a large number of unguided, short-range Grad and Fajr light rockets Rubin characterized as “terror weapons” because of their ability to “wreak havoc in population centers.”
Hezbollah also has Syrian-supplied Scud-Ds and Iranian-made Zeilzal 1s. Each boast a large payload and “can hit Jerusalem and Tel Aviv,” Fitzpatrick said.
But Hezbollah, too, may be reluctant to carry out Iran’s bidding.
In Brom’s view, there is a “reasonable possibility” the group would decline to participate in Iranian retaliation because it would suffer “enormous political damage due to the perception that [it] is willing to sacrifice Lebanon for foreign interests.”
Israel prepares defense
In the event Hezbollah does join in, Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, aimed at short-range projectiles, would be put to the test.
Israeli officials said the system shot down 77 percent of about 300 incoming rockets and mortar shells fired last month from Gaza during four days of skirmishes with Palestinian militants. A second missile shield, Arrow II, designed to intercept Iranian Shahab 3s, has only been used in trials. It boasts a shoot-down rate of 90 percent.
Most Israeli estimates forecast a limited Iranian response. Defense Minister Ehud Barak said any Iranian retaliation would be “bearable,” probably claiming fewer than 500 Israeli lives.
Beyond direct retaliation against Israel, Iran could also attempt to restrict some of the world's oil flow.
Analyst Fitzpatrick says Tehran could impose quasi-legal restrictions in waters it controls west of the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers and other ships “would be required to provide detailed inventories and submit to onerous inspections designed to impede traffic flow,” he said.
Fitzpatrick's London think-tank foresees a "sea-denial" strategy where Iran attacks “isolated or poorly defended ships [using] mines, torpedoes, rockets and anti-ship missiles.” A traditional sea blockade would be virtually impossible given the small size of Iran’s surface fleet.
Most experts doubt Iran would attempt to completely close the waterway since Tehran is heavily dependent on petroleum exports, all of which currently transit the strait and make up approximately 70 percent of government revenues.
And it is likely, too, that an international naval response would keep oil tankers moving through the strait, limiting Iran's attack options on the high seas.
Out-of-control
More worrisome, analysts say, is that regional conflict could spiral with unpredictable consequences.
“When you get into an escalatory dynamic of this type, you’re getting on a tiger’s back and you cannot always pick the place to dismount,” former U.S. national security official Ray Takeyh told a Brookings Institution forum late last year.
A classified U.S. war game held last month warned of a protracted regional conflict “which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead,” The New York Times recently reported.
Trita Parsi, president of the Washington DC-based National Iranian-American Council, said Iran’s experience in the 1980-88 war with Iraq will drive Tehran to ensure any potential conflict “is not limited to its own soil.”
Parsi warns the likely outcome of a successful preemptive strike by Israel or the United States would be “an enlargement of the war with very unpredictable repercussions.”
Brom, now a Tel Aviv-based security analyst, fears Tehran's calculations on how far it can go without broadening the conflict may backfire.
“Governments are prone to miscalculation, so [escalated retaliation] can happen, especially under the stress of being attacked,” he said.
Sudan
The United Nations Security Council has demanded that South Sudan pull its troops out of a Sudanese oil town that it captured on Wednesday. The two countries came closer to all-out conflict Thursday as South Sudan looked ready to defy the Security Council’s order and Sudan threatened retaliation.
In a strongly worded statement, the 15-nation Security Council said it is deeply alarmed by the escalating conflict between the two Sudans, as marked by the seizure and occupation of the Sudanese town of Heglig by southern forces.
U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice holds the rotating presidency of the council this month and read its order.
"The Security Council demands a complete, immediate, and unconditional end to all fighting; withdrawal of the SPLA from Heglig; end to SAF aerial bombardments; end to repeated incidents of cross-pborder violence between Sudan and South Sudan; and an end to support by both sides to proxies in the other country," said Rice.
The council demanded that both sides redeploy their troops 10 kilometers outside the North/South January 1956 borderline in accordance with their agreements signed in 2011, as well as redeploying their forces out of another hotspot, the disputed Abyei area.
The council also urged the two Sudans to take steps to immediately establish a safe demilitarized border zone and activate their Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism.
The leaders of Sudan and South Sudan were to have met in a summit earlier this month, but Khartoum pulled out after an earlier round of fighting over the town of Heglig. On Thursday, the Security Council called on the two leaders to "meet immediately" in a summit so they could work on their outstanding issues.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has also expressed his deep concern at the escalation between the two Sudans and his spokesman said that he spoke with South Sudan's president, Salva Kiir, on Wednesday.
In Juba, Salva Kiir sounded defiant when he spoke to his parliament earlier Thursday about his conversation with the U.N. chief.
"He gave me an order, the U.N. secretary-general, that I'm ordering you to immediately withdraw from Heglig," said Kiir. "I said, 'I'm not under your command.' If I'm head of a state, an independent state, nobody will tell me that - do this, under duress."
Sudan's U.N. ambassador, Daffa-Alla Elhag Ali Osman, warned that his country would retaliate with force if South Sudan does not comply with the U.N.'s call for it to withdraw.
"We in the government of Sudan, we will observe closely the behavior and attitude and the reaction of the government of the South for this call," said Osman. "If they don't heed it to this call, we will reserve our right to exercise the right of self-defense and we will chase them out; not only that, we will hit deep inside the south."
South Sudan withdrew from Sudan and became an independent state in July after holding a referendum last year. The African Union is trying to help mediate disputes the two countries have on a number of outstanding issues, including disagreements over borders and oil revenues. But those talks have made little progress.
Unless otherwise stated, all content based on VOA News reports.