A Syrian fighter pilot has landed at a military base in Jordan and asked for political asylum, in a high-profile defection from the armed forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Also, western experts are saying that Syria has a stockpile of chemical weapons.
The near failure of talks about Iran in Moscow and the pending imposition of a full oil embargo by the European Union have deepened the dispute between Iran and the international community, and increased concerns about military action.
Egypt's election officials are reviewing complaints about irregularities in the nation's first freely-contested presidential election, delaying announcement of the results. The indefinite postponement is adding to tensions already heightened by the appropriation of some presidential powers by the military.
A Pakistani judge issued an arrest warrant Thursday for one of the candidates poised to replace the country's ousted Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. An anti-narcotics judge in the northern city of Rawalpindi ordered Makhdoom Shahabuddin's arrest in connection with a scandal involving illegal imports of the drug ephedrine during his time as health minister.
Jordan's information ministry says a Syrian fighter pilot has landed at a military base in Jordan and asked for political asylum, in a high-profile defection from the armed forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Syrian state media reported earlier Thursday that the military had lost contact Colonel Hassan al-Hamade while he was flying a Russian-made MiG-21 fighter jet on a training mission in the country's south.
It is believed to be the first Syrian military defection involving an aircraft.
The defection comes against the backdrop of continuing violence across Syria. Residents and Syrian rights activists say two people were killed when government troops shelled Homs on Thursday, as aid teams from the International Committee of the Red Cross stood ready to evacuate trapped and wounded citizens from the city.
Activists also reported shelling Thursday in the southern town of Inkhil, in Daraa province, that killed at least nine people.
Meanwhile, the Syrian Army is by regional standards a highly-capable military force and its air force is one of the largest in the Middle East.
In addition to that, Western experts believe Syria has a large chemical weapons arsenal including mustard gas, the more modern sarin and even VX - the most toxic of all chemical agents.
“Unlike Moammar Gadhafi, who had basically dismantled his chemical weapons,” said John Pike, head of Globalsecurity.com, “the Syrians have a very active poison gas program.” Pike says they have “the medium-range ballistic missiles that would enable them to deliver it to the neighborhood - certainly to Israel and Turkey, but not farther afield, certainly not to western European countries.”
Experts say there is little hard data on Syria’s chemical weapons program because the country has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention that outlaws the production, possession and use of such weapons. Most of the estimates come from intelligence agencies and analysts.
Charles Blair, with the Federation of American scientists, says it makes sense for the Syrians to have a chemical weapons arsenal because they need some sort of deterrent against the Israelis.
“In 2007 the Israelis destroyed what at that point were nuclear reactors going up in what was believed was the nascent Syrian nuclear program.” Blair said “It’s entirely possible that after that, the Syrians redoubled their efforts with their chemical deterrent because they no longer had a nuclear route.”
Experts believe the chemical weapons - known as "the poor man’s nuclear weapon" - are produced in four or five facilities in Syria and stored in dozens of places throughout the country.
Aram Nerguizian, a Syria expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says these sites are well protected.
“A lot of talk about securing these facilities so far is moot,” he said, “because a lot of the elite units in the Syrian military are critical to maintaining the safeguards on those facilities. There is a strong sense of confidence within the U.S. defense community, that the Syrian armed forces currently have strong safeguards in place.”
There has been some debate about what to do to secure the Syrian chemical weapons arsenal if the crisis escalates. Some reports have indicated that the U.S. Defense Department is drawing up contingency plans to secure that arsenal.
But Charles Blair is skeptical about such an endeavor, saying “the only way that you could envision really securing the Syrian stockpile is with a large force.” He says the Department of Defense estimates that “it would take 75,000 U.S. forces to properly secure it. And there is no large standing Western army anywhere near Syria. “I don’t think there is any way that the West can secure the stockpiles," he said.
Analysts also believe it is essential to make sure that those chemical weapons don’t fall into the hands of groups like Hezbollah or al-Qaida. Experts also fear that the rebels fighting the Syrian government might obtain those arms - but they point out that right now, the rebels don’t have the necessary military systems to deliver them.
Iran
The near failure of talks in Moscow and the pending imposition of a full oil embargo by the European Union have deepened the dispute between Iran and the international community, and increased concerns about military action.
Two days of grueling talks did not narrow the gaps between the West and Iran. The negotiators could only agree to hold lower level talks in the coming weeks.
Mark Fitzpatrick at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies calls the Moscow meetings “a disappointment,” and has little hope for the follow-on talks.
“It’s, of course, possible that technical talks could narrow differences. But what is really called for is a political decision,” he said.
Fitzpatrick predicts more international sanctions in an effort to convince Iranian leaders to abandon their high-level nuclear fuel enrichment program. He says an embargo on Iranian natural gas could be next.
But Leo Drollas, the director of the Center for Global Energy Studies, disagrees.
“There’s not much scope for restricting that trade. It’s not as important for them as oil. Financial restrictions, internationally, are probably the biggest stick that can be used. The financial restrictions would be quite onerous,” Drollas said.
Iran says the enrichment is for peaceful purposes, but experts say it brings the country dangerously close to being able to produce a nuclear weapon.
And if the next phase of talks fails, there could be another danger - an attack by Israel.
“It probably will escalate into a larger conflagration, and that could actually lead to a situation where the very existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran could be threatened,” Mark Fitzpatrick said.
But he says Israel will not likely attack as long as talks continue.
At the same time, the European Union’s oil embargo against Iran goes into full effect July 1. Leo Drollas says the embargo has already cut Iran’s oil revenues nearly in half, without causing an increase in the global price of oil.
“The world has more oil than it can handle at the moment," he said "That’s why the price of oil has come down quite heavily. And there’s no embargo in the world that’s oil tight, if you like, or water-tight.”
Drollas says Iran uses its own ships and financing to get around restrictions. So while the pain of economic sanctions is significant, it has not has not yet convinced Iranian leaders to make the policy changes the international community wants.
Egypt
Egypt's election officials are reviewing complaints about irregularities in the nation's first freely-contested presidential election, delaying announcement of the results. The indefinite postponement is adding to tensions already heightened by the appropriation of some presidential powers by the military.
Supporters of Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi are planning another mass rally in Cairo's Tahrir Square Thursday, demanding a quick resolution of the country's political crisis.
Election officials put off the planned Thursday announcement of the results, as they went through hundreds of complaints lodged by Morsi's campaign and that of his rival, former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq.
Both sides are claiming victory and Morsi supporters are concerned the delay could be an attempt to alter the unofficial results. Initial tallies by various observers in polling stations across the country appeared to give Morsi the lead. But those results are within a margin of error.
There have been threats from supporters of both men of a backlash should their candidate be declared the loser. But a Shafiq official late Wednesday tried to defuse the tensions. Campaign spokesman Basel al-Baz told reporters in Cairo his candidate would accept the results.
"In the event that candidate Morsi is indeed successful and victorious in the election, the first telephone call he will receive will be from candidate Shafiq," said al-Baz. "Not only will he receive this phone call from him, but in fact the services of candidate Shafiq shall be offered for the good of the country moving forward, at the end of the day we are looking for unity."
The election results are only part of the political standoff. In the past week, the ruling military council has re-introduced elements of martial law, carried out the court-ordered dissolution of parliament and taken for itself legislative and some presidential powers. The moves come just weeks before the council has promised to return all power to a civilian leadership.
Veteran diplomat Abdullah al Ashaal, a candidate in the first round of the elections who threw his support to Morsi, says whoever wins will need to be very intelligent in its negotiations with the military.
“The problem of the new president is not to reform the country and bring it back to the normal," said al Ashaal. "His problem is the military council withdrawing. Even if it is withdrawing on paper, it is still holding the security and the corruption that it was. And, this is why a confrontation is in fact inevitable between the head of state and the military council.”
One more element adding to the general sense of uncertainty is the health of former president Hosni Mubarak. The ex-leader, sentenced to prison earlier this month for his role in the deaths of Tahrir Square protesters last year, was transferred to a military hospital Tuesday. Varying accounts of his condition have raised suspicions that the move was not medically necessary, but rather used to get him out of prison.
Pakistan
A Pakistani judge issued an arrest warrant Thursday for one of the candidates poised to replace the country's ousted Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.
An anti-narcotics judge in the northern city of Rawalpindi ordered Makhdoom Shahabuddin's arrest in connection with a scandal involving illegal imports of the drug ephedrine during his time as health minister.
The same judge also issued a warrant for Ali Musa Gilani, son of the outgoing prime minister, for his links to the case. Both men denied any wrongdoing.
It is unclear how the new developments will affect Shahabuddin's political future; he currently is Pakistan's textile minister. Lawmakers are due to meet Friday to discuss the election of a new prime minister.
Shahabuddin is the nominee of the ruling Pakistan People's Party, which holds a majority in parliament together with its coalition partners. Lawmakers also will likely consider at least four other nominees, including two from the opposition.
Pakistan's new prime minister stands to inherit a tenuous position between President Asif Ali Zardari and the country's Supreme Court, which declared Mr. Gilani ineligible for office Tuesday because of a prior conviction. The court found him guilty of contempt on April 26 after he refused its order to ask Swiss authorities to investigate claims of corruption against President Zardari.
The new prime minister will likely face the same pressure to investigate the president.
The Supreme Court's decision is the first time it has forced the removal of a standing prime minister. The move is a blow to Mr. Zardari's government, already struggling with rolling blackouts, high unemployment, militant attacks and a tense relationship with the United States.
Supporters of the court, including the political opposition, have welcomed the stand against what they believe is a corrupt and ineffective government.
But others feel the Supreme Court is overstepping its boundaries and doubt that the election of a new prime minister will end the standoff.
Stumble It!
